This may not be the year JAMEIS WINSTON becomes a top 10 quarterback, but expect a quantum leap. The Buccaneers understand exactly what Winston is: a smart (potentially brilliant) gunslinger whose release is a bit methodical. He doesn't fit the quick-strike schemes that define so many of today's offenses; he's suited for the slower-developing plays that stem from five- and seven-step dropbacks. Coach DIRK KOETTER'S shrewd downfield concepts will bring out Winston's best.
• Winston needs to cut down on his interceptions. He threw 15 as a rookie and 18 last year (second only to Philip Rivers for the NFL high). Winston has the talent to compensate with big plays—as Eli Manning does, and Brett Favre did—and he's not simply "mistake-prone" like his backup, RYAN FITZPATRICK. And Winston's turnovers should decline with experience. Many of them are the result of overly aggressive decisions on reads that most young quarterbacks wouldn't even know enough to consider.
• Tampa Bay has the three kinds of receivers that teams want in a downfield passing offense: a big wideout who can run corner and post patterns and win with the ball in the air (MIKE EVANS); a speedster who can attack safeties, opening up the intermediate levels (DESEAN JACKSON); and a tight end who can work the seams and run the 5-to-15-yard routes (both first-round rookie O.J. HOWARD of Alabama and incumbent starter CAMERON BRATE).
• In the first half of last season the Bucs' defense allowed 29.0 points and 398.9 yards per game. In the second half it surrendered 17.1 points and 337.0 yards. What changed? The players' comfort with coordinator MIKE SMITH'S zone concepts. The back seven played with much better spacing and awareness, and Smith, in turn, became more comfortable dialing up coverage disguises. Expect more improvement in 2017.
• An effective zone-based D requires a strong four-man pass rush. Aside from signing former Redskins tackle CHRIS BAKER in the offseason, GM Jason Licht did not address this unit. So he is counting on NOAH SPENCE to make even better use of the edge-quickness and second-effort burst that he flashed as a rookie.
"EXPECT A QUANTUM LEAP FROM WINSTON, WHO IS PLAYING IN AN OFFENSE THAT WILL BRING OUT HIS BEST."
SI'S 2017 PREDICTION
10--6
2016 RECORD 9--7
SEPT. 10
AT MIA
SEPT. 17
VS. CHI
SEPT. 24
AT MIN
OCT. 1
VS. NYG
OCT. 5
THURSDAY
VS. NE
OCT. 15
AT ARI
OCT. 22
AT BUF
OCT. 29
VS. CAR
NOV. 5
AT NO
NOV. 12
VS. NYJ
BYE
NOV. 26
AT ATL
DEC. 3
AT GB
DEC. 10
VS. DET
DEC. 18
MONDAY
VS. ATL
DEC. 24
AT CAR
DEC. 31
VS. NO
Position Rankings
QB
15
SKILL
11
Strength
OL
11
FRONT 7
11
DBs
17
ANDY BENOIT'S 400 MMQB ON.SI.COM/400
49 GERALD MCCOY DT
70 MIKE EVANS WR
132 DESEAN JACKSON WR
164 JAMEIS WINSTON QB
167 BRENT GRIMES CB
207 LAVONTE DAVID LB
210 CAMERON BRATE TE
217 KWON ALEXANDER LB
218 VERNON HARGREAVES CB
234 ALI MARPET C
252 ROBERT AYERS DE
277 CHRIS BAKER DT
289 DEMAR DOTSON T
321 NOAH SPENCE DE
334 DONOVAN SMITH T
342 WILLIAM GHOLSTON DE
