Olympic Medal Forecast
SPEED SKATING
With one exception, speed skating figures to be dominated by athletes from traditional strongholds: the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the U.S.S.R. and East Germany. The exception is Akira Kuroiwa, 22, who should take home Japan's first Olympic speed skating medal. A native of Tsumagoi, a village 90 miles north of Tokyo, Kuroiwa began racing at 12; a daily five-mile bike ride to school over steep mountain roads helped give him the powerful legs of a speed skater.
MEN
500 Meters
Akira Kuroiwa Japan
Pavel Pegov U.S.S.R.
Vladimir Kozlov U.S.S.R.
Dark Horse: Nick Thometz U.S.A.
1,000 Meters
Sergei Khlebnikov U.S.S.R.
Hilbert van der Duim The Netherlands
Pavel Pegov U.S.S.R.
Dark Horse: Erik Henriksen U.S.A.
1,500 Meters
Rolf Falk-Larsen Norway
Hilbert van der Duim The Netherlands
Aleksandr Baranov U.S.S.R.
Dark Horse: Dimitri Botsjkarjov U.S.S.R.
5,000 Meters
Rolf Falk-Larsen Norway
Dimitri Botsjkarjov U.S.S.R.
Tomas Gustafson Sweden
Dark Horse: Geir Karlstad Norway
10,000 Meters
Tomas Gustafson Sweden
Geir Karlstad Norway
Hilbert van der Duim The Netherlands
Dark Horse: Sergei Berezin U.S.S.R.
WOMEN
500 Meters
Karin Enke E. Ger.
Natalya Petruseva U.S.S.R.
Christa Rothenburger E. Ger.
Dark Horse: Natalya Shive U.S.S.R.
1,000 Meters
Karin Enke E. Ger.
Natalya Petruseva U.S.S.R.
Andrea Schöne E. Ger.
Dark Horse: Natalya Kurova U.S.S.R.
1,500 Meters
Karin Enke E. Ger.
Andrea Schöne E. Ger.
Natalya Petruseva U.S.S.R.
Dark Horse: Valentina Lalenkova U.S.S.R.
3,000 Meters
Karin Enke E. Ger.
Gabi Schönbrunn E. Ger.
Olga Pleshkova U.S.S.R.
Dark Horse: Mary Docter U.S.A.
NORDIC SKIING
Some golden oldies are back: This will be the fourth Olympics for Finland's Juha Mieto, 34, a cross-country gold medalist in 1976; and the third Games for the U.S.S.R. 's reticent Raisa Smetanina, 31, who copped cross-country gold in 76 and '80. A comparative youngster at 25, biathlete Frank Ullrich of East Germany is also back for a third time; he won gold in 1980 and is now favored in the 20 km. He started competing at 11 and won a world title at 20.
SKI JUMPING
70 Meters
Matti Nykänen Finland
Jari Puikkonen Finland
Horst Bulau Canada
Dark Horse: Richard Schallert Austria
90 Meters
Klaus Ostwald E. Ger.
Primoz Ulaga Yugoslavia
Jens Weissflog E. Ger.
Dark Horse: Pavel Ploc Czechoslovakia
NORDIC COMBINED
Tom Sandberg Norway
Uwe Dotzauer E. Ger.
Kerry Lynch U.S.A.
Dark Horse: Thomas Müller W. Ger.
BIATHLON
10 Kilometers
Eirik Kvalfoss Norway
Peter Angerer W. Ger.
Algimantas Shalna U.S.S.R.
Dark Horse: Frank-Peter Roetsch E. Ger.
20 Kilometers
Frank Ullrich E. Ger.
Frank-Peter Roetsch E. Ger.
Odd Lirhus Norway
Dark Horse: Fritz Fischer W. Ger.
4 √ó 7.5-km Relay
E. Ger.
U.S.S.R.
W. Ger.
Dark Horse: Norway
CROSS-COUNTRY
MEN
15 Kilometers
Gunde Svan Sweden
Aleksandr Zavyalov U.S.S.R.
Bill Koch U.S.A.
Dark Horse: Pal Gunnar Mikkelsplass Norway
30 Kilometers
Juha Mieto Finland
Nikolai Zimyatov U.S.S.R.
Harri Kirvesniemi Finland
Dark Horse: Torgny Mogren Sweden
50 Kilometers
Thomas Wassberg Sweden
Asko Autio Finland
Yuri Burlakov U.S.S.R.
Dark Horse: Jan Lindvall Norway
4 √ó 10-km Relay
U.S.S.R.
Norway
Finland
Dark Horse: Sweden
WOMEN
5 Kilometers
Kveta Jeriova Czechoslovakia
Lyubov Zimyatova U.S.S.R.
Brit Pettersen Norway
Dark Horse: Blanka Paulu Czechoslovakia
10 Kilometers
Raisa Smetanina U.S.S.R.
Marja-Liisa Hamalainen Finland
Lyubov Lyadova U.S.S.R.
Dark Horse: Brit Pettersen Norway
20 Kilometers
Berit Aunli Norway
Raisa Smetanina U.S.S.R.
Kveta Jeriova Czechoslovakia
Dark Horse: Marja-Liisa Hamalainen Finland
4 √ó 5-km Relay
U.S.S.R.
Norway
Finland
Dark Horse: Czechoslovakia
BOBSLED & LUGE
The hottest thing on the refrigerated run is the new U.S.S.R. bob, a machine so slender it's called "the cigar." However, the cigar has proved so hard to handle that the Soviet practices have been marred by crashes. So, the choice for the two-man gold is East Germany's Bernhard Germeshausen and Hans-Jürgen Gerhardt. Germeshausen rode in the two-and four-man bobs that won in '76, and he added another gold in '80. The East German women lugers look like winners, too.
TWO-MAN BOB
Germeshausen/Gerhardt E. Ger.
Kipurs/Shnepsts U.S.S.R.
Hoppe/Schauerhammer E. Ger.
Dark Horse: Hiltebrand/Manrad Switzerland
FOUR-MAN BOB
Switzerland I
E. Ger. I
Switzerland II
Dark Horse: U.S.S.R. I
LUGE
Men's Singles
Paul Hildgartner Italy
Sergei Danilin U.S.S.R.
Michael Walter E. Ger.
Dark Horse: Torsten Görlitzer E. Ger.
Women's Singles
Bettina Schmidt E. Ger.
Steffi Martin E. Ger.
Ute Weiss E. Ger.
Dark Horse: Ingrida Amantova U.S.S.R.
Men's Doubles
Raffl/Huber Italy
Stanggassinger/Wembacher W. Ger.
Hoffmann/Pietzsch E. Ger.
Dark Horse: Belousov/Belyakov U.S.S.R.
HOCKEY
According to U.S.S.R. coach Viktor Tikhonov, there will be no U.S. miracle in Sarajevo. "The Soviet team will win the gold," he says. "It's younger, faster and more ambitious than any Soviet team before." It also has such reliable veterans as defenseman Vyacheslav Fetisov, 25, an officer in the Soviet army. In '77 he was the youngest player ever to take part in the world championships, and in '78 and '82 he was named the best defenseman at the worlds.
U.S.S.R.
Czechoslovakia
Sweden
Dark Horse: West Germany
FIGURE SKATING
There seems little doubt that Scott Hamilton of the U.S. and ice dancers Jayne Torvill and Christopher Dean of Great Britain are golden, but the women's title is up for grabs. Katarina Witt of East Germany, who won the recent European championships, is, said one critic, "pure joy to watch," but America's Rosalynn Sumners or Elaine Zayak could win—if they can stay on their skates. The Leningrad duo of Yelena Valova and Oleg Vasiliev look like a winning pair.
MEN
Scott Hamilton U.S.A.
Aleksandr Fadeyev U.S.S.R.
Brian Orser Canada
Dark Horse: Norbert Schramm W. Ger.
WOMEN
Katarina Witt E. Ger.
Rosalynn Sumners U.S.A.
Claudia Leistner W. Ger.
Dark Horse: Elaine Zayak U.S.A.
PAIRS
Valova/Vasiliev U.S.S.R.
Baess/Thierbach E. Ger.
Underhill/Martini Canada
Dark Horse: Lorenz/Schubert E. Ger.
DANCE
Torvill/Dean Great Britain
Bestemyanova/Bukin U.S.S.R.
Blumberg/Seibert U.S.A.
Dark Horse: Klimova/Ponomarenko U.S.S.R.
ALPINE SKIING
The old daredevil is back at the top. Franz Klammer, 30, is again skiing wild, as he did in 1976, when he thrilled the world with his gold-medal downhill run. In '80 Klammer failed to make the Austrian Olympic team and suffered a serious knee injury, but he has bounced back from both disasters. Another mended skier is Switzerland's Erika Hess, 21, who had a knee operation at the end of '82 and then, three weeks later, placed second in a World Cup slalom.
MEN
Downhill
Franz Klammer Austria
Erwin Resch Austria
Peter Müller Switzerland Dark Horse: Bill Johnson U.S.A.
Giant Slalom
Pirmin Zurbriggen Switzerland
Hans Enn Austria
Max Julen Switzerland
Dark Horse: Jure Franko Yugoslavia
Slalom
Phil Mahre U.S.A.
Bojan Križaj Yugoslavia
Franz Gruber Austria
Dark Horse: Stig Strand Sweden
WOMEN
Downhill
Maria Walliser Switzerland
Irene Epple W. Ger.
Michela Figini Switzerland
Dark Horse: Laurie Graham Canada
Giant Slalom
Tamara McKinney U.S.A.
Maria Epple W. Ger.
Erika Hess Switzerland
Dark Horse: Olga Charvatova Czechoslovakia
Slalom
Erika Hess Switzerland
Christin Cooper U.S.A.
Anni Kronbichler Austria
Dark Horse: Dorota Tlalka Poland
PHOTO
Kuroiwa, who has lost only one of 15 500-meter races the last two seasons, says, "I feel no pressure because nobody told me to win the gold medal."
PHOTO
Says East Germany's Ullrich of the biathlon: "Its attraction lies in the extremes. Skiing and shooting are like fire and water."
PHOTO
"You need the magic touch," says Germeshausen. The head-down Gerhardt hopes his driver has just that.
PHOTO
Fetisov, here checking a West German, has played hockey for 17 of his 25 years.
PHOTO
Valova and Vasiliev, together only three years, should perpetuate the Soviets' gold-medal tradition in the pairs, which started in '64.
PHOTO
A triple gold medalist in the 1982 worlds, Hess seems destined for gold, but she says, "I'm a realist. Nothing is ever won in advance."
EIGHT ILLUSTRATIONS