Golf Jones 30 Before you invest in a player in next week's U.S. Open, take a tip from us and check out the...
It's true what they say about the U.S. Open. It is golf's
ultimate test, a tournament that almost always becomes a living,
breathing, choking example of Darwinian survival. Funny, but
doesn't that sound a lot like Wall Street? The Street is
investing's ultimate test, a dog-eat-dog world in which the king
of the beasts today could be wearing Milk-Bone underwear tomorrow.
Consider the similarities.
Wall Street had Black Thursday, Oct. 29, 1929, when almost
everyone in the market was wiped out. The Open had Bloody Sunday,
June 21, 1992, when gale-force winds at Pebble Beach left only
one man standing.
Wall Street has stock gurus. The Open has swing gurus.
Wall Street has killjoys like Alan Greenspan and the Federal
Reserve. The Open has fuddy-duddies like Trey Holland and the
USGA.
Wall Street has blue chips. The Open has blown chips. (See
Pinehurst, 1999.)
Only a lucky few obtain seats on the New York exchange. Only a
lucky few (of 8,000-plus entries) make it all the way to the
Open.
On Wall Street, prices swing wildly. At the Open, John Daly does.
A lot of jack changes hands daily on Wall Street. A lot of
three-jacks occur daily at the Open.
Wall Street securities often crash and burn. Arnold Palmer
(Olympic, '66), T.C. Chen (Oakland Hills, '85) and Gil Morgan
(Pebble Beach, '92) have done the same at the Open.
Wall Street has IPOs. The Open has Aaron Baddeley.
Wall Street has Louis Rukeyser and the Motley Fool. The Open has
Johnny Miller and Dan Hicks.
Some people say that stock trading has become the new national
pastime. Others say that golf has. Hey, here's an idea. Imagine
that Pebble Beach is a giant trading floor and the players are
securities. The leader board can be the ticker. Here are the 30
bluest chips going into next week's Open, and our view of who
holds real value and who doesn't.
Tiger Woods
World Rank: 1
Est.: 12/30/75
U.S. Wins: 19
Symbol: IRULE
Fundamentals:
--Has won 11 of last 20 starts.
--Four wins this year, including Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
--Tenth or better in seven of last nine majors.
--Tour's career money leader with almost $15.5 million.
52-Week High: Stretched Tour winning streak to six straight at
Pebble Beach.
52-Week Low: Was in position to win three weeks in a row, at San
Diego, Los Angeles and Carlsbad, Calif., but failed to convert.
Whisper Number: Seven ahead of Jack Nicklaus's pace for Tour
wins. (Nicklaus had 12 at age 24.) Needs one major this year to
jump ahead of him in that category.
Insider Trading: The bluest chip of 'em all. Only question left
is whether he'll surpass Nicklaus as best player in history.
Recommendation: Strong buy
David Duval
World Rank: 2
Est.: 11/9/71
U.S. Wins: 11
Symbol: CHILL
Fundamentals:
--Runner-up twice in Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
--Among top 11 in seven of last nine majors.
--Six top fives in 13 starts this year.
--Super combo: second on Tour in total driving, third in greens
in regulation.
52-Week High: Snowboarding in Idaho.
52-Week Low: Drowned approach, and Masters hopes, in Rae's Creek
at 13th hole.
Whisper Number: Fourteen months and counting since last victory.
Insider Trading: A missed putt here, a poor chip there and his
winning touch was history. He's not far off, though, as he showed
at the Masters. Huge upset if he's not in contention at Pebble.
Recommendation: Strong buy
Colin Montgomerie
World Rank: 3
Est.: 6/23/63
U.S. Wins: None
Symbol: EARS
Fundamentals:
--Has topped European tour money list seven straight years.
--Twenty-four Euro tour wins.
--Third in '92 Open at Pebble.
--Quiet third at this year's Players.
52-Week High: Won third straight Volvo PGA two weeks ago.
52-Week Low: Lost crucial singles match to Seve Ballesteros in
Ballesteros Trophy in April.
Whisper Number: Has never won in U.S., remarkable for a player of
his stature.
Insider Trading: So good, but so fragile. Will West Coast fans
ride him, as they did in '98 at Olympic? Should have won a major
by now.
Recommendation: Hold
Davis Love III
World Rank: 4
Est.: 4/13/64
U.S. Wins: 13
Symbol: AVIS
Fundamentals:
--Thirteen top 12s in majors since '95.
--Won '97 PGA.
--Has a third and fourth in Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
52-Week High: Finished second at Bay Hill, Nelson and Colonial.
52-Week Low: Finished second at Bay Hill, Nelson and Colonial.
Whisper Number: Eight seconds, no wins since '98 MCI.
Insider Trading: The way he's putting, he should be raking in
wins. Course management questionable at times. Playing too well
overall for latest nickname, Avis Love, to stick.
Recommendation: Hold
Phil Mickelson
World Rank: 5
Est.: 6/16/70
U.S. Wins: 16
Symbol: LEFTY
Fundamentals:
--Three wins already this year.
--Won rain-delayed Pebble Beach Pro-Am in '98.
--Second in last year's Open.
--Has 10 top 10s in majors, but no victories.
52-Week High: Ended Woods's winning streak with W at San Diego.
52-Week Low: Outputted by Payne Stewart over closing holes to
lose '99 Open.
Whisper Number: Only one lefthander has won a major (Bob Charles,
'63 British Open).
Insider Trading: Pebble Beach favors a fade--a draw for a lefty.
Mickelson's primed, and Pebble's perfect for his game.
Recommendation: Strong buy
Vijay Singh
World Rank: 6
Est.: 2/22/63
U.S. Wins: 9
Symbol: KISS
Fundamentals:
--Masters champion.
--Top 10s in three of last five Opens.
--Won two of last six majors.
--Tied for second at Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
52-Week High: Won Masters.
52-Week Low: Parting shot in Augusta: "Kiss my ass, everybody."
Whisper Number: Has finished 10th or better at each of this
year's remaining major championship sites.
Insider Trading: Putting, which has held him back, still an
issue. Has already switched from Dandy putter he used to win at
Augusta. If putter is on next week, will be hard to beat.
Recommendation: Strong buy
Hal Sutton
World Rank: 7
Est.: 4/28/58
U.S. Wins: 13
Symbol: HOSS
Fundamentals:
--Five wins in last 2 1/2 years.
--Seventh in '99 Open first top 10 in any major since '91.
--Career-high 13 top 10s in 25 starts last year.
52-Week High: Outplayed Woods to win Players Championship.
52-Week Low: Four-putted a green in Greensboro, though he still
won.
Whisper Number: Stepped up at Ryder Cup, accounting for 3 1/2
points in U.S. victory.
Insider Trading: Open favors ball strikers, and Sutton as good as
anyone. Gained new respect by winning Sunday staredown with
Woods. Would love another crack at Tiger at Pebble.
Recommendation: Strong buy
Lee Westwood
World Rank: 8
Est.: 4/24/73
U.S. Wins: 1
Symbol: WIZRD
Fundamentals:
--Three wins in Europe last year, 10 there overall.
--Seventh in '98 Open.
--Second on European tour to Montgomerie in greens hit in
regulation last year.
52-Week High: Beat Woods in Germany last month.
52-Week Low: Lost leadoff singles match to Lehman as Euros
flat-lined in Ryder Cup.
Whisper Number: Shrinks on big stage. Has broken 70 only four
times in 52 rounds in majors.
Insider Trading: Could be Europe's future star, but needs to put
himself in position to win a major.
Recommendation: Hold
Ernie Els
World Rank: 9
Est.: 10/17/69
U.S. Wins: 7
Symbol: BIGEZ
Fundamentals:
--Already owns two Open titles.
--Has contended in all four majors.
--Second at Masters was his first top 15 in a major in two years.
52-Week High: Played well enough to win the Masters and might
have if Vijay Singh hadn't overcome potentially disastrous
mistakes at Amen Corner.
52-Week Low: Kicked away likely win at MCI Classic over final
nine.
Whisper Number: Needs to be a weekend warrior. Fourth-round
scoring average of 70.40 doesn't compute with 69.25 for first two
days.
Insider Trading: In awe of Woods. Still, has goods to win any
Grand Slam event.
Recommendation: Buy
Jesper Parnevik
World Rank: 10
Est.: 3/7/65
U.S. Wins: 4
Symbol: STOGY
Fundamentals:
--Two wins in '00.
--Finished out of top 10 only four times in 12 starts.
--Has seven rounds of 66 or better.
--Leads Tour in putting.
52-Week High: Beat Love in Byron Nelson playoff.
52-Week Low: Those pink slacks.
Whisper Number: Two top 10s in majors in '99 (British, PGA).
Solid U.S. Open record (48th, 14th, 17th).
Insider Trading: Forget flaky image. If he played in Europe full
time, Monty's reign as top money winner would be over.
Recommendation: Strong buy
Tom Lehman
World Rank: 12
Est.: 3/7/59
U.S. Wins: 5
Symbol: GOPHR
Fundamentals:
--Seven top eight finishes in first 12 starts this season.
--Second on Tour in greens in regulation.
--Top five in four of last five Opens.
--Won '96 British Open.
52-Week High: Won Woods's preseason event and then Phoenix Open
for first official title since '96, quelling talk that he
couldn't close.
52-Week Low: Allowed Tom Pernice to steal Buick Open.
Whisper Number: Harmonic convergence? In '90s Lehman had five top
10s in Open and four top 10s in Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Insider Trading: Has never played better--must be that puka shell
necklace his wife bought him in Hawaii.
Recommendation: Strong buy
Jim Furyk
World Rank: 13
Est.: 5/12/70
U.S. Wins: 5
Symbol: LOOP
Fundamentals:
--Fifth, fifth, 14th, 17th in last four Opens.
--Hasn't been on top of game since Florida swing.
--Has shot at least one round in 60s in each of his five Opens.
52-Week High: Showed mental toughness with back-nine takedown at
Doral's Blue Monster.
52-Week Low: So consistent, there isn't one.
Whisper Number: Finished 17th or better in 14 of last 18 majors.
Insider Trading: Get over the swing--it's solid. He's always close
in majors and could win one by accident.
Recommendation: Buy
Darren Clarke
World Rank: 14
Est.: 8/14/68
U.S. Wins: 1
Symbol: CHUB
Fundamentals:
--Has shot 60 twice on European tour.
--Tied for 10th in last year's Open.
--Like Woods, a Butch Harmon student.
52-Week High: Flattened his friend Woods during Hoganesque
performance in World Match Play final at La Costa.
52-Week Low: Lost $175 to his manager in practice round at La
Costa, only match Clarke dropped all week.
Whisper Number: To win first major, needs to eliminate blowup
rounds like the 79 at this season's Players and the 78 at the
Masters.
Insider Trading: Pebble Beach might remind him of Northern
Ireland. Impressive ball striker now realizing how good he really
is. Look out if he gets on roll.
Recommendation: Buy
Sergio Garcia
World Rank: 15
Est.: 1/9/80
U.S. Wins: None
Symbol: LNINO
Fundamentals:
--Shallow swing plane causes problems in rough.
COLOR PHOTO: PAUL SEVERN/ALLSPORT (WOODS)
COLOR PHOTO: TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP (DUVAL)
COLOR PHOTO: ELISE AMENDOLA/AP (MONTGOMERIE)
COLOR PHOTO: DONALD MIRALLE/ALLSPORT (LOVE)
COLOR PHOTO: DONALD MIRALLE/ALLSPORT (MICKELSON)
COLOR PHOTO: GARY HERSHORN/REUTERS (SINGH)
COLOR PHOTO: MICHAEL CAULFIELD/AP (SUTTON)
COLOR PHOTO: DONALD MIRALLE/ALLSPORT (WESTWOOD)
COLOR PHOTO: AMY SANCETTA/AP (ELS)
COLOR PHOTO: DAVID MARTIN/AP (PARNEVIK)
COLOR PHOTO: TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP (LEHMAN)
COLOR CHART Big picture: Average finish and number of starts in the Open. With 43 Open starts, the Golden Bear is off the chart. Players in red have won the Open. Missed cuts are computed as a 61st-place finish.
COLOR PHOTO: TONY GUTIERREZ/AP (FURYK)
COLOR PHOTO: PAUL SEVERN/ALLSPORT (CLARKE)
COLOR PHOTO: ROSS KINNAIRD/ALLSPORT (GARCIA)
COLOR PHOTO: JEFF HAYNES/AFP (FRANCO)
COLOR PHOTO: JAY LAPRETE/AP (LEONARD)
COLOR PHOTO: LOU KRASKY/AP (CINK)
COLOR PHOTO: ERIC RISBERG/AP (O'MEARA)
COLOR PHOTO: ELISE AMENDOLA (COUPLES)
COLOR PHOTO: ANDY CLARK/REUTERS (STRICKER)
COLOR PHOTO: JT LOVETTE/REUTERS (MAGGERT)
COLOR PHOTO: AMY SANCETTA/AP (ROBERTS)
COLOR PHOTO: GARY HERSHORN/REUTERS (WEIR)
COLOR PHOTO: LEONARD IGNELZI/AP (LAWRIE)
COLOR PHOTO: ELISE AMENDOLA/AP (AZINGER)
COLOR PHOTO: DAVID J. PHILLIP/AP (SLUMAN)
COLOR PHOTO: DONALD MIRALLE/ALLSPORT (JANZEN)
COLOR PHOTO: JOHN FRENCH/AFP (NORMAN)
COLOR PHOTO: GARY HERSHORN/REUTERS (NICKLAUS)
COLOR PHOTO: DAVID J. PHILLIP/AP (BADDELEY)