Jaguars at Colts

One thing is certain about the de facto AFC South title game on Sunday: It's going to be close. The last six meetings between these two have been decided by 21 points, total. Another certainty is that Peyton Manning, who's been forced to throw far too much this season, will be firing away again. The Jags, led by precocious defensive tackles Tyson Alualu (23 years old) and Terrance Knighton (24), have held four of their last six opponents to less than 90 yards rushing, and the Colts have the league's worst rushing attack. This game could come down to whether Manning can become more comfortable with the patterns of new receiving targets Blair White and Jacob Tamme. Even so, I think it's the Jags' time.

Jaguars 33, Colts 27

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DAVID ROSEBLUM/SOUTHCREEK GLOBAL/ZUMAPRESS.COM (ALUALU)