Go with the Flow
UNDEFEATED TEAMS
PREDICTED OUTCOME
ALTERNATIVE OUTCOME
OREGON
STANFORD
LOSE
Oregon has the toughest road, with two top 15 teams left, and the Ducks need to prevail impressively in both games to keep the top spot in the human polls because the computers like Kansas State and Notre Dame better. Even if they're beaten in one of their last two, the Ducks could still play in the conference championship, but a pair of losses would end all BCS dreams.
WIN
OREGON ST.
TEXAS
LOSE
WIN
PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP
LOSE
Undefeated in the regular season means nothing if Chip Kelly & Co. don't win the Pac-12. A loss leads to one of the other BCS bowls.
KANSAS ST.
BAYLOR
LOSE
Baylor won't be a challenge, and the Wildcats will survive the Longhorns' visit. That should get them to the title game. (There's no Big 12 championship game.) Of course, nothing is guaranteed, and if Oregon and Notre Dame remain undefeated, Kansas State will be at the mercy of voters and computers. If so, expect K-State's and the Irish's wins against common opponents (Miami and Oklahoma) to be parsed like the Zapruder film. If Texas pulls the upset, the Wildcats are probably Fiesta Bowl bound.
WIN
TEXAS
NOTRE DAME
WAKE FOREST
WIN
USC
LOSE
The Trojans and their fans will be pumped to get Matt Barkley a signature win in his final home game. USC receivers Marqise Lee and Robert Woods will challenge Notre Dame's secondary more than any wideouts have this year. Lose and they're a lock for the Fiesta.
WIN
Are Oregon and K-State still undefeated? If so, did the Irish crush USC and persuade voters that they belong in the title game?
YES
NO
ONE-LOSS TEAMS
ALABAMA
WIN
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP
LOSE
A washout in Atlanta would mean no Sugar for 'Bama and an answer to the eternal question: Is it possible for Nick Saban to get any grumpier?
WIN
AUBURN
LOSE
Alabama won't drop either of these games, but it hardly matters. The Tide's loss to the Aggies put the SEC's six-year title streak in jeopardy. No one in the conference has a clear path to the BCS championship game.
WIN
W. CAROLINA
GEORGIA
WIN
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP
LOSE
Non-BCS bowl, likely the Capital One.
WIN
GEORGIA TECH
WIN
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
YES
Have at least two of Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame lost? If so, the SEC championship winner will most likely play for the BCS title. Again.
NO
The Sugar Bowl awaits. Will a sad fan base follow?
WIN
FLORIDA
FLORIDA ST.
LOSE
WIN
JACKSONVILLE STATE
FLORIDA ST.
WIN
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP
LOSE
Non-BCS bowl, probably Chick-fil-A.
WIN
FLORIDA
LOSE
WIN
MARYLAND
LOSE
YES
Have multiple teams taken a second loss, including at least two of the current undefeateds?
NO
Welcome to a non-BCS bowl, most likely the close-to-home Outback or Capital One against a Big Ten team.
YES
Has everyone else lost, and have the Seminoles dominated the ACC title game enough to make voters overlook their loss at N.C. State (and the low esteem in which they hold the conference)?
NO
Orange Bowl to face the Big East champ, most likely Rutgers or Louisville.
DISCOVER BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP SOUTH FLORIDA 2013
ILLUSTRATION
Illustration by JULIE TENINBAUM
SEVEN PHOTOS