CHANCES ARE

SI'S ANALYTICS EXPERT CALCULATED THE WIN PROBABILITIES FOR ALL 68 TEAMS IN THE FIELD. CHECK OUT THE FULL, INTERACTIVE BRACKET AT THEPOWERRANK.COM

11.7%

No. 3 seed Florida has the highest statistical chance of winning it all based on these rankings, which rely on average margin of victory, adjusted for strength of schedule. The Gators won by 17.9 points per game, second in the nation, and their schedule was the 21st toughest.

43.0%

Among the matchups of No. 5 seeds versus No. 12s—always a tempting place to look for upsets—Mississippi has the highest probability of KO'ing Wisconsin, followed by Oregon over Oklahoma State (42.1%), Cal over UNLV (41.5%) and Akron over VCU (38.9%).

23.6%

Two No. 2 seeds were upset in 2012, and two more could be this year. No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast stands the best chance against Georgetown, while Iona's shot at beating Ohio State is almost as good (23.5%). On the other hand, Albany has just an 11.2% chance of ousting Duke.

PHOTO

BRETT LE BLANC/GAINESVILLE SUN/LANDOV

PAPER GATORS Versatile and efficient veterans like junior center Patric Young (4) and senior guard Kenny Boynton (right) add up to a potential championship team.